Final Oscar Predictions (Which I Might Throw Out on the Night)

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The Oscars are nigh! Honestly, Oscar season always feels long but this year it was all but impossible to hear someone say, "Wait, the Oscars haven't happened yet?" But what feels like the longest Oscar season in history is finally here and...I still don't know who I see winning. Maybe because there's just so much that's been thrown at us outside of a movie theater, but I've never felt more disconnected from the Oscars than this year. Really, the evening will probably be an offshoot of the Golden Globes piece I wrote.

Either way, below are the major predictions I'm throwing out there! I'll be over on our Discord server on the night and hope you all will pop in to hear me laugh, cry, and complain about the In Memoriam segment.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: I don't see Ryan Coogler losing this one for Sinners.

Could Win: I've heard arguments made for It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value. This seems like the most shoo-in category but, if it isn't, it could be either of these.

Should Win: Coogler, 100%.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Pundits have called this a slam dunk for Paul Thomas Anderson. I'm a bit more skeptical and see it as a fight between PTA and Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell for Hamnet. There's a world where I see Hamnet taking this and Actress and nothing else. But I'm gonna play it safe here and say PTA.

Could Win: Hamnet.

Should Win: Will Tracy's Bugonia script was so funny that, in a different world, I wish this was a winner. But then I've been quoting One Battle After Another for months.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: This one is tough as the various precursors have felt a bit haphazard. There's a world where I can see any one of these five taking the award home. And I'm still not 100% confident on the choice I'm making.

That being said, the majority of Oscar voters are still somewhat older, and at least three out of the five are men over 60. And each of those men has a strong narrative for why they should. But, for me, it's Lindo that has the strongest pull. Penn is still not universally beloved by both voters and the bigger fandom, and while his performance as Colonel Lockjaw is showy, it might hit too close to home to reward. Lindo has been at every event, kind and gracious in talking to voters. And if Sinners is the movie to race through the awards this would be a great moment.

Could Win: Ordinarily, I'd worry two One Battle nominees would split, hence Lindo. But if it's not him than I could see Penn or even Del Toro taking this. I'm gonna lean towards Penn for ow.

Should Win: Lindo or Del Toro would make me so happy.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: I still don't get the love for Weapons and probably never will. However, I'm all for a veteran performer finally getting recognition in this space (see Lindo above). So I'm okay with this being Amy Madigan's Oscar. And I'm ready for this Oscar season to end so I never have to talk about this movie again.

Could Win: Everyone keeps saying Wumni Mosaku for Sinners could be a real upset which is interesting. She's great, I just don't know if I see her eking out a win. Maybe if Sinners truly sweeps? If anything, I see Teyana Taylor being more of an upset.

Should Win: I love both Mosaku's Annie and Taylor's Perfidia Beverly Hills so just give them both an award.

Best Actress

Will Win: It's Buckley. Just give it to her at the door, it's so obvious.

Could Win: I don't see anyone else upsetting the apple cart here but maybe Rose Byrne?

Should Win: Buckley is fantastic. But I love Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs just a smidge more.

Best Actor

Will Win: For the last few months nearly every pundit was on the "Timothee Chalamet's winning an Oscar" bandwagon. But in the wake of Michael B. Jordan's SAG win, and Chalamet shooting himself in the foot with his press antics, the tide has turned to seemingly everyone thinking Jordan was a shoo-in. I'd very much love Jordan to win, but I'm having trouble seeing it. Mostly because of Hollywood's desire to "reward" actors who have stewed in their acting juices. Usually, the belief is to give the actors an Oscar when they're older, when they're due. Chalamet and Jordan, still in their thirties, could be perceived by voters as still having time in their careers to give audiences something truly fantastic.

So I'm gonna be SUPER controversial and say, I think Leo is taking this one. Leo didn't win his first Oscar till he was 42 and if Penn and One Battle do really well, this could be an easy nomination. Not to mention, Leo glad-handed A LOT during this awards season. I'm sorry but I just don't see either of the young guys taking this home.

Could Win: Jordan is still very much up there. But even as backup I see Chalamet taking this home. Remember, this is the voting body that gave us Green Book. We say every year the Oscars are gonna shake things up and they never do.

Should Win: Jordan! And if he wins I might have my faith restored in humanity.

Best Director

Will Win: The Oscars could make history giving Ryan Coogler the award and making him the first Black director (in 2026!) in the ceremony's entire history to win the award. But see my comments about Green Book above. I think PTA is walking away with this.

Could Win: Coogler. Give him all the awards. The man's only made five films and all have had massive cultural impact.

Should Win: Coogler. Coogler. Coogler. I'm manifesting this!

Best Picture

Will Win: Sadly, I don't see the Oscars breaking their anti-horror antipathy this year. (If The Exorcist couldn't win Best Picture, I see little hope for anything else.) I see One Battle taking this.

Could Win: Sinners is still very much in contention. It's a crowd-pleaser. No doubt voters have watched it multiple times. But I still can't shake that something weird like Hamnet or something is in second place.

Should Win: Sinners all the way!

💫I'm hosting an Oscar watch party over on our Discord chat for all Film Maven fans, paid and free. Click the link and join us on Sunday to talk about the winners, the losers, and everything in between.💫

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